Economic Evaluation of Sectoral Emission Reduction Objectives for Climat\e Change

i Preface This report considers options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transport, and uses a 'bottom up ' approach to assess the cost-effectiveness of options and the reductions it might achieve. In assessing potential reductions, it draws on work on future transport demand completed by the National Technical University of Athens for this project using the PRIMES energy model. The report should be read in conjunction with those from NTUA. The report focuses on emissions of CO 2 , with some consideration of N 2 O emissions; emissions of HFCs from mobile air conditioning and refrigerated transport were considered in a separate part of the study by Ecofys (Economic Evaluation of Emission Reductions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 in Europe), and are only briefly summarised here. On its way to its current form this report has received significant input from a considerable number of experts. In particular, a panel of experts in Brussels discussed a draft version of the NTUA PRIMES report on transport on November 23, 1999 (see Appendix 7 for a list of names), and a draft version of this report at a workshop on March 30, 2000. The experts made a number of specific and more general comments and suggestions. The author would like to thank these people for their valuable inputs into this study. For this " Final Report " it was attempted to consider their suggestions wherever possible. This is a revised version of the final report that was posted to the EU website in December 2000. The revisions are to reflect updated 1990 figures from the UNFCC. The main greenhouse gas emissions associated with transport are CO 2 emissions that are a direct result of the combustion of vehicle fuels (petrol, diesel, aviation kerosene etc). N 2 O emissions from petrol cars equipped with 3-way catalytic converters are higher than from non-catalyst cars and could constitute a growing source. Within this study, baseline projections of energy demand are taken from the Primes model baseline scenario defined for the 'Shared Analysis' project 1999. This excluded the impacts of the voluntary agreement reached with European (ACEA), Japanese (JAMA) and Korean (KAMA) car manufacturers 1 to reduce the average CO 2 emissions for all new cars. The impact of this and the agreements with the non-European producers has been included in this study. The table below shows the emissions in 1990 [Primes, 1999] for the transport …